TheElephant, An Offset publication · No. 1 · October 2026 · Seven pieces · One screen
Plate 01 · Plague doctor’s hood, 17th c. · DHM Berlin · Anagoria, CC BY
Plate 02 · Joseph Merrick, carte de visite, c. 1889 · Royal London Hospital Archives · Public domain
Plate 03 · Joseph Merrick’s cap and veil · Royal London Hospital Museum · Public domain
Plate 04 · Joseph Merrick, right profile · Wellcome Collection · CC BY 4.0
Seen, felt, discussed
TheElephant,

The Elephant, in American speech of the 1800s, meant life experience gained through action and adventure, not study. Men who had seen the world said it. It can be seen, felt and then discussed. It cannot be ordained.

The name →
This page 1261 KB · no scripts · 16 grays 01 Then and now · 02 When you say program, punch yourself · 03 Gattaca, twenty-nine years later · 04 Gradon, real and false C2 nodes, and ACE expeditionary sites · 05 Who Called It a Dream · 06 DC to Chicago · 07 Defense Startup Industry Introduces ‘Mission Guy’ Action Figure So Founders Can Finally Have One of the Guys in the Room
01 · essay · 614 words · 3 minClose ×

Then and now

I think civilian life looked simple and easy. because the issues didn’t carry the death tax, that ultimate consequence. I assumed the military experience was max stress. The tests, trials, and everything were nonstop. It never ended. The sense you

By Noah R.S. Smith · First published on noahrssmith.com, Oct. 14, 2026 · The original →

I think civilian life looked simple and easy. because the issues didn’t carry the death tax, that ultimate consequence. I assumed the military experience was max stress. The tests, trials, and everything were nonstop. It never ended. The sense you had so much to learn through experience to get a grip was all-consuming. Well, turns out that’s bullshit.

Life is not easy as a civilian. What I have learned, and it’s taken me to age forty to realize: my life is not easy, and, perhaps more accurately, I don’t make my life easy. Is it me, or is it brain chemistry? It’s both, and they’re intertwined. I have a sense that my sense of constant transcendence is a gift from god. My other is a sense of what another person is feeling, and then the military and combat, I think, with a sparkle of a traumatic childhood, lets me decide when to engage with that and feel it in full, and when to eschew it, crumple it, and toss it away. Those options sometimes make their own choice, sometimes they don’t make one at all, and sometimes, I get just enough sense to make that call myself. It’s boosted me and my life, and it’s harmed my life.

I feel my karma in life has been relationships. to get them right. Interpersonal relationships plagued my entire life. In some ways, I think I both joined and left the military out of loneliness and a sense of exclusion.

When I look at this chart, I see a lot that I like.

It resonates, for sure. The part where my eyes hover and my mind waits is on transcendence. I most enjoy my creativity and curiosity. I most and least enjoy the transcendence. The rub is that I can’t see and feel that beauty without its mirror experience. The hard thing about adhd is the mood and the extreme emotional reactions to events that trigger. There is a total reaction to rejection. It’s odd bc i am comfortable with rejection. Even still, its hints and peeks trigger me. Today, it does not consume me. But before? Oh boy. I dated someone who was so avoidant that I came to realize it helped me. It helped me go from very anxious attachment syndrome … to normal! or more normal. I am now a much better person. not to the extent when I did TM 2xday, but better nonetheless.

The important reason is that the adhd mind is ceaseless. It never stops. And if you are prone to ruminate, that is all-consuming and very painful. Persistence is a trait in that chart that rings true, too. I slept on the couch every night, and carried him in and out until we went to diapers with my dog Tucker. I watched him wither away, and life fade from him, and I was heartbroken every single day. After he died, I experienced a quiet and void that felt impossible, otherworldly. It was not creepy; it was the emptiness. It’s an emptiness I feel today, and it grows when I think about it. I can feel his ashes in the wooden box pulse in my mind. I know he’s moved on. But my persistence in my love and dedication to this animal that I loved like a son has not ended, and it won’t. If that’s a trait that adhd gifted me, I will die proud to have it. There is no regret about couch life with that dog, being there for him during his prolonged time of need. change his diaper and clean him every day.

02 · essay · 1,288 words · 6 minClose ×

When you say program, punch yourself

This “program” obsession creates problems; it doesn’t solve them.

By Noah R.S. Smith · First published on noahrssmith.com, Oct. 6, 2026 · The original →

“Program” has become a catchall, like OTA, and both have become nebulous. Its use encourages charlatanism, an easy trap to fall into as you’re desperate to be perceived as something.

I am the greatest offender I know. But it was a phase.

I’ve learned through photography and extrapolated it to everything in my life over these horrid, angst-ridden forty years: we all go through the same or similar phases. That’s why philosophy and so many concepts “slap” and “hit hard” when they do. When you’re ready, that is.

Well, I’m ready to STFU about “programs” as the cup that Indiana Jones chose because of his education, insight, and instincts that saved his father’s life.

And that Jesus drank from and is the fountain of youth. A life restoration magic elixir that works when the water is combined with the cup, the container. This is almost an acetate overlay of how start-up enthusiasts and market champions portray the Defense market, and its budgetary “programs”. If my technology could just get into that program, that program of record. It’s critical to say this and visibly enter a daydream: a pot-of-gold rainbow fantasy. It’s appropriate to even frolic around a bit and make music. But you, my friend, are your own pied piper.

Chemical film

Back to the phases of new interests. In photography, everyone new – and I again am offender number one – wants to shoot chemical film. It’s a better “look”. When most grainy images we’ve seen are digital, and we have no idea.

The average person can’t tell CCD, CMOS, BSI CMOS, and chemical film apart any day of the week. There are certain advantages to different formats and platforms, but they’re use-case-dependent, like technology. Like in the military.

When I was good enough, I closed some deals, won various SBIRs, open and full competitions, and lived in that Shipley/GTM sausage maker to feel confident.

I began to think about “programs”. And I can tell you now it’s delusional. I started building a tool for it. My DB is now searchable at defenseprograms.com and via MCP if you just ask me. I’ll keep up with it, add more and more context, and use it.

But I kept coming back to the same conclusion. This “program” obsession creates problems; it doesn’t solve them and introduces new unnecessary complexity to my thought process, when the companies that win get awards because of a collective bottom-up and top-down upvote.

The religion of national security

It’s self-service. People on the Hill know one another because they know one another: for years, decades. They’re dedicated to the Congressional work and policy sphere. There’s a limited set of personalities or people with the appropriate appropriations background to be effective, or even get meetings on the Hill.

The same is true for the Pentagon. It’s cultural. You are part of the religion of national security, or you aren’t: and there are levels. As with Judaism, there are orthodox, conservative, and other streams.

Well, NatSec and the military, in terms of raw credibility, boil down to military or CIA service. When in those arenas, who was closest to the action, to the impact, the most meaningful? It’s an exercise in the search for meaning, and an arena to face a moral experiment that tests your mental, physical, and emotional capacity. Most men want to be tested and pass that test to manhood. A rite of passage.

I can explore that and what it looks like in detail for days, and think on it, and probably learn about myself, my life, my childhood, everything.

There are equivalencies across sectors and industries. Cosplay isn’t one of them. The truth is, no one cares about your background in business when you present to DoD when you’re the technologist who’s solved a problem. Unearthing that problem is a cultural navigation often unachievable for outsiders and tourists.

And there are many tourists, and, as we would describe, many senior and other government delegations and visits are war tourists.

In an endearing way, when I see someone with all the coins and no military background, I think it’s cute. They just love the military so much. It shows they honor it. I view it as a form of respect, intrigue, and dedication to the mission we all serve: the US’s place in the world as a force for righteousness and fairness. To free the oppressed.

Anyone who comes forward and wants to aid and elevate US interests, over time, will get work, breaks, and opportunities. Those who want to transact won’t pierce the veil inside the temple. They can sell widgets as people walk in and out, and many want that and to generate wealth. But the lanes seem to have merged, and now everyone’s confused.

Room on a pallet

There are circumstances in which the Program Office directs what you do; unsolicited proposals can be very effective. It is, however, rooted in knowledge of their customer, the operational stakeholder.

That operational stakeholder has TTPs, a unit that’s designed with purpose (DOTMLPF). The Army keeps dogging itself because it can’t get out of its MTOE method to manage forces. The technology is an M, a material solution. It needs training, doctrine, and where is it stored? How does it get places?

Is there room on a pallet if the boys deploy today?

Literally, that question all but was the death sentence for the Army’s FTUAS. The room on pallets and, when broken down, how much space it took up in a Chinook were the Rangers’ “nope” criteria. The pallet has set dimensions that fit on a Chinook and onto the C-130, and our ISU-90s fit them just right. It’s a knapsack algorithm.

It flies around like a spas and gets situational awareness: cool. We’d rather take stuff that helps us do our job.

Elevate that to the Army writ large: does M help units of action take terrain, hold terrain? In various terrains, like mountains.

No mountains in the ocean

I was on a call not only with the program office but also with the requirements writers for FTUAS, with a vendor that has a real shot at getting into that program in a big way. The CTO was a Navy civilian and research scientist before he joined this unique UAS company. There was an Army standard question about altitude above 10,000 feet to clear “ten footers”, mountains that are 10,000 feet, a sort of standard mountain formation that changes tactical plans and logistics.

The CTO scoffed at this question and said there are no mountains in the ocean.

After a great brief, serious interest in the capability, and a culture open to accepting risk on a platform that opened a new category of long-range CONOPs, the requirements writer most engaged was baffled. That destroyed rapport, any prospect of trust, gone, kaput.

The senior government civilian and retired Army aviator laughed and said, “Well, the Army sometimes patrols mountains, that’s what an infantry does.”

We did not enter the program office, say Blue Rose, and get a contract handed to us in return. In almost every engagement in my industry life, in this high-tech and start-up GTM capacity, which defines my entire Pentagon experience and private sector, that move is a colossal failure.

It is an abject roar from a dying beast. And the roarer thinks it’s a roar, but the customer hears a sickly mouse squeak, “money!”▶︎

Notes

  1. Related research on combat bonds: Whitehouse et al. (2014), Brothers in arms: Libyan revolutionaries bond like family, PNAS.
  2. Related research on sacred values and willingness to fight: Gómez et al. (2017), The devoted actor’s will to fight and the spiritual dimension of human conflict, Nature Human Behaviour.
03 · review · 478 words · 2 minClose ×

Gattaca, twenty-nine years later

A film I have carried since childhood. On being told what you are, and going anyway.

By Noah R.S. Smith · First published on noahrssmith.com, Sept. 21, 2026 · The original →

I first saw Gattaca on a rented tape, probably too young for it, and I have not stopped thinking about it since. The premise is simple. Vincent Freeman is conceived without genetic selection and read at birth as a list of probabilities: a heart condition, a short life expectancy, a low ceiling. He wants to go to space. The film is about the distance between what he was told and what he does.

What moved me as a child, and still does, is that the film never argues with the diagnosis. Vincent’s heart is weak. His eyesight is poor. The numbers are not wrong. He borrows the identity of Jerome Morrow, a man with a perfect profile and a broken back, and spends every morning scrubbing loose skin from his body so that he will not be found out. The effort is enormous and almost entirely invisible, which is how effort usually is.

The swim

Twice in the film Vincent races his brother Anton out to sea. Anton is the engineered one, the one who was supposed to win. The second time, as adults, Vincent beats him and has to tow him back to shore. When Anton asks how he did it, Vincent tells him he never saved anything for the swim back. I have said that line to myself more often than I would admit, usually at a desk, usually when nothing much was at stake.

“I never saved anything for the swim back.”

It is not a line about courage, or not only. It is about refusing to budget for the version of yourself that turns around. Growing up with a head that would not sit still, I recognised the arithmetic immediately.

The look of it

Andrew Niccol and the cinematographer Sławomir Idziak shot the film in a narrow band of amber and green, and the production design is mid-century modern made cold: Frank Lloyd Wright’s Marin County Civic Center stands in for the Gattaca complex, and the staircase in Jerome’s apartment is built as a double helix. It is a future with very few screens in it. People hold paper, drive old cars and wait for the rocket. It looks the way this site is trying to look, which is probably not a coincidence.

Twenty-nine years on, the science has moved closer to the film and the film has not aged. I do not think it is a warning about genetics. I think it is a film about what you do after you have been measured.

Notes

  1. Gattaca (1997). Written and directed by Andrew Niccol. 106 minutes.
  2. Cinematography by Sławomir Idziak. The Gattaca building is Frank Lloyd Wright’s Marin County Civic Center in San Rafael.
  3. Rewatched on 14 June 2026 before writing this. In the log →
04 · report · 2,155 words · 9 minClose ×

Gradon, real and false C2 nodes, and ACE expeditionary sites

Where an AI engineering design startup could fit in Pacific dispersed basing, decoy sites and C2 facilities, drawing on WWII, Ukraine and PLA practice.

By Noah R.S. Smith · First published on Land Offset, Oct. 14, 2026 · The original →

Question: Can Gradon play a role in building C2 nodes and false C2 nodes, and in making ACE expeditionary sites? Which WWII concepts come back, and what new ones come from Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific?

Short answer: Yes, in one narrow role. Gradon could be the drawing and calculation engine inside the engineering firms that design Pacific airfields, dispersed sites and C2 facilities. That work is mostly 1391s, 35% designs, site and civil packages, and adapting standard designs.

It cannot be the C2 or deception provider. Today it also cannot touch controlled military work at all: it is a two-person, cloud-backed commercial product with no CUI, CMMC, FedRAMP, UFC or on-premise story.

The opening is real. The Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI) carries about $2.7B a year of construction. Deception now has a growing Air Force budget line. Nobody has shown generative AI producing DoD design packages.

1. What Gradon is

Gradon is the trading name of Aisle Technologies, Inc., a Delaware company in San Francisco. It is in Y Combinator’s Fall 2026 batch, YC lists its team size as two, and it is backed by YC and Founders, Inc. (YC, terms). The founders are Nour Zahzah (CEO, Berkeley mechanical engineering, former mechanical design engineer) and Yousef Helal (CTO, Berkeley, Stanford MS, FPGA work at Apple and AMD).

What it does:

  • A desktop agent that drives the firm’s own installed software. Named tools include Civil 3D, AutoCAD, Revit, MicroStation, OpenRoads, STAAD, ETABS, HEC-RAS, HydroCAD, ArcGIS and Bluebeam.
  • Engineers message it work like a teammate. It first ingests the firm’s past projects and standards into a “Firm Brain,” which the company stores in its own cloud (heygradon.com).
  • Sample outputs on its site: a 62-sheet civil construction set in Civil 3D, and a 25-sheet structural set with a 191-page calculation package.
  • Licensed engineers review everything. The terms say Gradon “does not seal or sign any work.”

Claims and the gaps behind them:

  • Claims: project time cut by more than 75% (one launch example went from 750 hours to 180), “2x revenue per engineer,” and forward-deployed onboarding of at least a week on site.
  • No named customers and no press.
  • No defense presence: the site never mentions defense, UFC, ITAR, CMMC, FedRAMP, SOC 2 or air-gapped deployment.
  • Unfinished privacy page: it is marked “DRAFT, PLACEHOLDER TEXT, NOT YET IN EFFECT” (privacy).

2. The precedents

WWII: deception was a construction program

  • UK decoy department. Colonel John Turner’s department built daytime dummy airfields (K sites), night lighting decoys (Q sites) and, after Coventry, Starfish fire decoys. By war’s end there were 237 decoys protecting 81 towns and cities (Starfish).
  • Fortitude South. It combined dummy landing craft built from scaffold, canvas and oil drums with radio traffic scripted from recordings of real exercises. The traffic simulated eleven divisions of a fictional army group, and German belief in it held into August 1944 (English Heritage).
  • The Ghost Army. The 23rd Headquarters Special Troops had about 1,100 men and ran 22 operations (Ghost Army). Its units covered three channels:
  • Visual: engineer camouflage with inflatables.
  • Radio: a special signal company sending false traffic.
  • Sound: a sonic deception company.
  • Soviet maskirovka before Bagration. Dummy armor, false radio traffic and radio silence led Hitler to move more than half of Army Group Centre’s tanks and artillery away from the real axis (IWM).
  • Repair and build speed.
  • Henderson Field crater fills took about 40 minutes per raid (Seabee history).
  • Tinian North Field reached four runways of about 8,000 ft and hardstands for 265 B-29s within ten months (North Field)).

Throwbacks that apply again:

  • Decoy airfields (K and Q sites), now as decoy ACE spokes.
  • Lighting and fire decoys at night.
  • Dispersed hardstands and revetments.
  • Pierced steel planking reborn as AM-2 matting. A 96 by 96 ft Marine pad takes about a day after survey and grading (3rd MAW).
  • Rapid crater repair.
  • Scripted signals deception built from real traffic.
  • Engineer camouflage units that build to match real use, including vehicle tracks and wear.

Russia and Ukraine: decoys work only when they match the real signature

  • Painted bombers failed. Painted Tu-95 silhouettes at Engels were obvious in commercial imagery (TWZ).
  • Three-dimensional decoys worked.
  • Ukrainian wooden HIMARS decoys drew Kalibr strikes (TWZ).
  • Metinvest builds repairable metal-frame artillery and radar decoys (Kyiv Post).
  • Decoys now guard air defenses. Russia places mock Pantsir and Tor systems around real ones (Defence Blog).
  • C2 exposure. Ukraine struck Russian headquarters more than 22 times in eight months of 2022 (Military Review).
  • Russia adapted. It pulled major HQs beyond rocket range into hardened structures and linked subordinates by directional microwave to cut emissions (RUSI).
  • RUSI’s 2022 rule. HQ survival comes from dispersal, mobility or hardening; a civilian building alone does not protect it (RUSI).
  • Operation Spiderweb. On June 1, 2025, truck-borne FPV drones hit bombers on open aprons deep inside Russia (Forecast International).
  • Russia then built shelters. The UK MoD confirmed shelter construction at about 14 airbases (Army Recognition).

New concepts from Ukraine:

  • Signature-matched 3D decoys.
  • Decoys clustered around high-value emitters.
  • Emission discipline as the real C2 survival factor. That means remoted antennas, directional links and decoy emitters physically separated from staffs.
  • Light overhead cover against FPV drones, as well as full hardened shelters.
  • Control of commercial satellite comms. Starlink whitelisting in February 2026 cut off Russian-used terminals (NBC Palm Springs).

PLA and the Indo-Pacific: China hardens and deceives at scale

Shelters. Within 1,000 nm of the Taiwan Strait, the PLA has 134 air bases with more than 650 hardened and about 2,000 non-hardened shelters. Over the same period the U.S. added 2 hardened and 41 non-hardened shelters in that radius (Hudson).

Decoys and mock-ups:

  • J-20-like shapes appeared at Lintao in 2022 (TWZ).
  • Full-scale U.S. carrier and destroyer outlines sit on Taklamakan ranges (WIFR).
  • PLA doctrine stresses inflatable and solid decoys plus false communications (The Diplomat).

U.S. exposure:

  • A House China Committee letter noted no hardened shelters on Guam or in the CNMI. It cited a CSIS wargame finding that 90% of U.S. aircraft losses occurred on the ground (House letter).
  • Air Force leaders still favor dispersal over hardening (TWZ).

Taiwan:

  • Taiwan plans 26 more hardened shelters for 2027 to 2031 (Taipei Times).
  • Stimson models Taiwan’s runways closed for the first two to three weeks of a conflict (Stimson).

Implication: shelters multiply an attacker’s aimpoints, and decoys multiply them again. Hardening and deception work together; neither replaces the other.

ACE and EABO today

Doctrine: AFDN 1-21 moves air operations “from centralized physical infrastructures to a network of smaller, dispersed locations” (CRS).

Pacific site work:

  • Tinian North Field: RED HORSE rehabilitated more than 20 million square feet of WWII pavement (Air & Space Forces).
  • Yap: about $400M planned (Air & Space Forces).
  • Peleliu: Marine engineers rebuilt a 6,000 ft strip.
  • Philippines: nine EDCA sites.
  • RAAF Tindal: U.S.-funded B-52 aprons.

The FY2027 PDI book says ACE needs “concealment, hardening, pre-positioned essential supplies” (FY27 PDI).

3. The money

Notes on the table:

  • Tactical Deception. The FY2027 jump funds air base defense prototypes. It also absorbs “Airbase Kits,” moved from an electronic warfare line.
  • Naval Construction Forces. FY2026 includes a $4.8M congressional add for “Autonomy Kits.”
  • PDI construction figures are sums of the PDI book’s Table 4.

C2 construction in the FY2027 PDI:

  • Joint Consolidated Communications Center, Andersen: $132.4M.
  • MDA Guam Defense System Command Center: $99.7M.
  • Joint Communication Upgrade, Guam: $60M.

Decoys have no procurement line. They show up as small buys:

  • Misawa inflatable radar and infrared decoys, about $552K.
  • A Marine Corps inflatable HIMARS and radar decoy solicitation.

4. Who buys the design work

Projects start as paperwork. MILCON projects begin as DD Form 1391 justifications. They are designed to 35% before budget lock, and planning and design funds pay for it (ERDC Code 2, 10 U.S.C. 2807). Congress now imposes design deadlines on congressionally added projects.

The construction agents:

  • USACE Honolulu, Japan and Far East districts.
  • NAVFAC Pacific and NAVFAC Marianas.
  • AFCEC.
  • RED HORSE and the Seabees, who design organically from standard designs. Those standards are moving to the Joint Construction Management System, which delivers AutoCAD templates (AFIMSC.pdf)).

Design is done by A-E firms on IDIQ contract vehicles:

  • NAVFAC Indo-Pacific A-E, $990M.
  • AFCEC Guam A-E MATOC, $930M, small business.
  • USACE Japan, $249M (Woolpert-RS&H).
  • USACE Korea, $200M (AECOM, HDR, Jacobs, Tetra Tech and others).
  • AFCEC AE Next.

The two $15B NAVFAC Pacific construction vehicles are design-build, so their designers of record are A-E subcontractors.

Closest precedents for AI in this work:

  • AFRL/AFWERX SBIRs for “Automated Propagation of Airfield Design for RED HORSE” (FA864922P0964) and for AI contingency airfield site selection (FA864924P1066).
  • AFCEC’s stated push toward AI agents for faster infrastructure delivery and cost estimating (AFCEC).

No public source shows generative AI producing 1391s, 35% designs or full plan sets for DoD.

5. Where Gradon could fit, and where it cannot

Real fits (analysis)

  1. Design sprints for dispersed sites. ACE needs many small sites, each needing:
  2. survey and geotech base drawings;
  3. grading and tropical drainage;
  4. pavement thickness design to UFC 3-260-02;
  5. AM-2 mat pads;
  6. fuel bladder and hydrant points;
  7. small power and water systems.

This is volume civil work, which is exactly what Gradon claims to compress. The constraint the Air Force faces is the number of sites, not the size of any one site.

  1. 1391 and 35% packages. These include parametric cost estimates. Pacific design money ($144.9M of Navy design in FY2027 PDI alone) runs against congressional design deadlines.
  1. Adapting standard designs. Gradon could take JCMS and AFCS templates in AutoCAD and fit them to specific Pacific sites.
  1. Decoy sites designed with the same rigor as real ones. WWII and Ukraine both show that a decoy fails when its layout, tracks, utilities, lighting or thermal pattern differ from the real thing. A tool that produces a full real-site package and a matching decoy package from the same template makes “one real site, several false ones” cheap at the drawing level.
  1. C2 node facilities. Gradon could design the shell, power, cooling and antenna remoting, and the setback layouts for small dispersed C2 posts and their decoy twins. Emitter decoys, signals deception and the C2 systems themselves belong to signals and electronic warfare firms, not to a design tool.

Blockers

  • Data and security. Facility drawings for C2 and decoy sites are CUI at minimum, and the layout itself is the secret. Today Gradon:
  • stores each firm’s “Firm Brain” in its own commercial cloud;
  • promises only “commercially reasonable” security;
  • has an unfinished privacy page.
  • Compliance. CMMC Level 2 third-party certification is now a condition of award for CUI work. A cloud tool holding CUI needs FedRAMP Moderate equivalency, and government-hosted use implies Impact Level 4 or 5. C2 and decoy work will usually need an on-premise or air-gapped build.
  • Criteria. UFC is never mentioned. Outputs would have to meet UFC 3-260-01 and 3-260-02, UFC 3-340-02 for blast, and the A/E/C CAD standard.
  • Scale and liability. Gradon has two people. A licensed engineer of record must still seal every sheet, and A-E selection is qualifications-based under the Brooks Act, so Gradon sells to firms and does not replace them.
  • Operational security of the model. A model holding many Pacific site packages becomes an aggregation target. Strict tenant isolation and no training on customer data are required, not optional.

What would have to be true

  • An on-premise or air-gapped edition that runs inside a mid-tier A-E firm’s CMMC enclave.
  • UFC criteria loaded as the “standards” the tool learns.
  • A first contract through an AFWERX or AFCEC SBIR topic modeled on the RED HORSE airfield design award, or a DIU Commercial Solutions Opening.
  • A pilot on an unclassified 1391 or minor construction package with a Pacific A-E MATOC holder before any C2 or decoy work.

Sources

Sources are linked inline throughout. Company facts come from heygradon.com, its terms and privacy pages, the YC profile and the YC launch post. Budget lines come from the FY2027 President’s Budget (PE 0208007F, PE 0603239N) and the FY2027 Pacific Deterrence Initiative book.

05 · essay · 6,096 words · 27 minClose ×

Who Called It a Dream

Disclaimed agency and the reception of difficult art: Lynch, Carrey, and the audience that needs them not to be responsible

By Noah R.S. Smith · First published on noahrssmith.com, Oct. 14, 2026 · The original →

How this was written

This paper was written with AI, and the questions that drove it are Noah’s. He first worked the idea through a long conversation with Google’s Gemini, which produced the dossier discussed in Appendix C. He then put that dossier to Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, which tested its claims, built the sourcing table and drafted this paper in answer to his questions. The reading of Twin Peaks as a dream that hands its guilt to an outside force is Noah’s, from his January essay on The Return. Noah chose what to publish.


Note on what this paper does and does not claim

This is a paper about texts and about reception. It argues about films, performances, interviews, and the critical vocabulary that has grown up around them.

It is not a psychological assessment of David Lynch or Jim Carrey. Neither man has been examined by the author, and the clinical vocabulary that circulates around both (narcissism, sociopathy, reaction formation, fugue) is used here only when quoting sources that use it, and is marked as such. Where the paper describes an inner state, it describes an inner state that a text proposes, or that a subject has publicly reported about himself.

This limit is not squeamishness. It is the condition under which the argument works at all. The moment you assert that an artist is a sociopath, you have made a claim that no evidence in the archive can confirm or refute, and the paper stops being falsifiable. What follows is the version that can be argued with.


1. The thesis, and the better thesis underneath it

The strong version of this argument, the one that comes most naturally, runs like this: certain artists cultivate an aura of the irrational in order to launder private appetites into public art. “Dream logic” is their alibi. It lets them put things on screen that would be intolerable if claimed directly, and it insulates them from being asked to account for any of it.

There are two problems with the strong version.

The first is that it cannot lose. Every fact confirms it. If Lynch declines to explain his films, that is the alibi operating. If he does explain them, that is the front stage managing the press. If he is warm with actors, that is seduction; if he is cold, that is treating people as raw material. A thesis that converts all evidence into confirmation is not an argument. It is a mood with citations.

The second is that it puts the wrong party at the center. The strong version assumes the artist manufactures the alibi. But look at who actually says the word “dream.”

Lynch spent fifty years declining to interpret his own work. He did not go on television and say this is a dream, therefore I am not accountable for it. He said, repeatedly and to the point of tedium, that he did not want to talk about what it meant, that the film was the explanation, that words ruined it. He described ideas using a fishing metaphor: you bait a hook, you wait, something comes up from below. That is a description of a process, not a legal defense.

The word “dream” was supplied by everyone else. By critics who needed a decoding key for a text that refused to yield one. By distributors who needed a category. By academics who needed a methodology. By audiences who needed a way to describe why Blue Velvet made them feel implicated.

So the sharper claim is this:

The disclaimer of authorship is primarily a reception phenomenon, not an authorial strategy. Audiences and critics manufacture it, because it is the technology that lets difficult material be consumed without moral cost to the consumer. The artist is its beneficiary, not usually its author.

This is a better thesis for three reasons. It is falsifiable: you can test it by asking who introduced the vocabulary and when. It explains more: it accounts for why the same rhetoric attaches to artists with nothing else in common. And it locates the interesting question where the interesting question actually is, which is not “what is wrong with this man” but “what work is this vocabulary doing, and for whom.”

Everything below follows from that inversion.


2. Two shapes of disclaimer

Lynch and Carrey are usually paired, when they are paired at all, as two versions of arrested development: the auteur who kept his toys and the comedian who never took off the mask. That pairing is not wrong so much as uninformative. What makes the pair worth studying is that they disclaim different things, and the difference is structural rather than temperamental.

Lynch disclaims authorship of the work. The formulation is always about reception: ideas arrive, he catches them, he tries to be faithful to them, he does not know what they mean, and explaining would be a betrayal of the viewer. Note what this protects. It protects the film. It keeps the object intact and unparaphrasable. It says nothing about whether the man is responsible for having made it.

Carrey disclaims the existence of the self. “There is no me. There are just things happening.” This protects something else entirely. It protects the person, by dissolving the entity to whom things could be attributed.

Why the difference? Because of what each medium requires.

A film is a made object. It is finished, it exists apart from its maker, and it can be interrogated on its own terms. The director’s problem is that the object might be reduced to a statement he did not intend to make. The available defense is to refuse paraphrase.

Stardom is not an object. It is a persona that has to be worn continuously, in public, without breaks, for decades. A film director is asked what a film means a few times per release. A star of Carrey’s magnitude was asked to be Jim Carrey on demand at every airport, junket, and awards show for twenty years. That is a labor condition, not a metaphor. The available defense against a persona that never gets to stop is to declare that there is nobody inside it.

The shape of a disclaimer is determined by the shape of the demand it answers. This is why the parallel between the two men is genuinely illuminating and why the naive reading of it (both are eternal children) is not: they are not two instances of the same pathology, they are two solutions to two different structural problems, and the solutions differ in exactly the way the problems do.


3. The evidence problem, demonstrated: the Dafoe dentures

A concrete case, because it shows how the same fact behaves under two frames.

Willem Dafoe has described how he was directed as Bobby Peru in Wild at Heart. There was no long conversation about the character’s psychology. The costume arrived on a hanger: this is your costume. When Dafoe assumed the character’s rotten teeth would be done with makeup, Lynch said no, they would make dentures. The prosthetic changed the set of his mouth, which changed how he breathed and how he sat, and out of that physical constraint came the specific quality Dafoe describes as lasciviousness.

Read one way, this is the puppeteer: a director who does not talk to adults, who physically modifies a performer’s body to extract a sexualized behavior he wants to look at, who treats people the way he treats the insects and the dead mouse.

Read another way, this is the outside-in method, one of the two major traditions of acting instruction, in which the exterior is built first and the interior follows from it. It is the tradition of the false nose and the changed walk. It is why Olivier’s advice to a colleague agonizing over an interior state was reported as a suggestion to simply try acting. Dental prosthetics are entirely standard. Dafoe himself tells the story as an appreciative anecdote about a director with an unusual and effective method, and he has spoken about Lynch warmly.

Both readings fit every fact. Nothing in the anecdote adjudicates between them. Which means the anecdote is not evidence for the strong thesis. It is a Rorschach test that returns whatever frame you brought.

This matters beyond the one example. Almost all the material in the popular archive around Lynch behaves this way. The rotting-organic-matter experiments in the Philadelphia years: clinical detachment, or the ordinary practice of an art student in the late 1960s making textural studies, which is what art students did. The 1950s manner: reaction formation concealing a predator, or a man who actually grew up in Missoula and Boise in the 1950s and talked like it. The refusal to explain: a fortress, or an aesthetic position held with unusual consistency for fifty years.

An argument built entirely on evidence of this kind is not an argument. The discipline this paper imposes on itself is to build only on claims where the two frames come apart, and to say so when they do not.


4. BOB, or the alibi inside the frame

Here is the material that does real work, and it is the strongest thing available on this subject.

Twin Peaks is a story in which a father rapes and murders his daughter, and in which the town, the family, and the narrative itself accept a supernatural explanation for it. A parasitic entity called BOB was inside Leland Palmer. Leland is therefore, in the register the show provides, a victim.

Now hold that next to the argument of section 1. The claim was that audiences manufacture disclaimers of agency because attributing agency to the artist would implicate them in what they are enjoying. And here is a text in which a community manufactures a disclaimer of agency for a man in their midst, because attributing agency to him would implicate the whole town in what it failed to see.

The alibi is inside the frame.

This changes the standing of the work in the argument decisively. The naive prosecution says: Lynch invented BOB as cover for men like himself, blaming a demon so the monster escapes consequence. But the show does not endorse BOB. It stages BOB. It shows the mechanism of supernatural attribution being built, in real time, by people who cannot survive the alternative. Sarah Palmer’s grief is not treated as enlightenment. It is treated as damage. The final sound in the 1991 finale and again in 2017 is a woman screaming, which is what a coping mechanism sounds like when it fails.

And the reading the source material for this paper found most compelling, that the whole of Twin Peaks may be Sarah Palmer’s dream, does not support the prosecution either. It inverts it. If the show is a victim’s dream, then the show is about the manufacture of alibis by the people who most need them, and it is on the side of the person who needed one. The dream is not the artist’s escape hatch. It is the subject matter.

This is the most interesting available claim in this whole territory:

Twin Peaks is a text about the audience’s own mechanism. It dramatizes the exact operation, attributing unbearable human agency to an external force, that critics perform on it when they call it a dream. The show got there first.

You cannot make that claim and also claim the work is an unwitting symptom. A text that anatomizes a defense mechanism is not naively performing it. That does not make Lynch a saint, and it says nothing about his private life, which remains unavailable. It says the work is smarter than the prosecution assumes, and any argument that treats the films as leaked evidence rather than as constructions has to answer for that.

4a. The same reading, arrived at independently

A fan video essay, Mister Rhombus, “Who is Judy? A Twin Peaks Analysis” (YouTube, April 2026), reaches this conclusion by a different route and pushes it further. Its argument: asking who Judy is is the wrong question, because it forces an identification with some on-screen body. The right question is what Judy represents, and the answer it gives is the suffering of women, specifically the silence around it. Judy is not the abuse. Judy is the fact that the abuse cannot be said out loud. Hence the shape of every reference to her in the text: Jeffries will not talk about Judy, the monkey can only whisper the name, the people who get close to her vanish. The entity behaves like a secret because it is one.

Two things that reading supplies which this paper did not have.

The first is the Pale Horse as the figure for willful ignorance, a reading the video credits to Twin Perfect’s video essay while disagreeing with most of it. The textual hook is the Woodsman’s line about the horse being the white of the eyes and dark within. The supporting observation is better: the white horse tends to appear at the far edge of the frame, so that seeing it requires the viewer to look away from center, which is the gesture the symbol names. The video insists on willful ignorance over indifference, which is the right distinction. Not failing to care, but declining to bother.

The second is the reading of the Judy’s bar scene in Odessa as a compressed statement of the whole. Outside, the horse over the door, ignorance standing as the gatekeeper. Inside, open sexual harassment, which the video assigns to Judy’s register, and sudden gruesome violence, which it assigns to BOB’s, both proceeding while a room full of witnesses declines to intervene. Three forces in one room. If that is deliberate, and the staging is hard to read otherwise, then the show is not merely anatomizing the alibi mechanism, it is naming the bystander as the third party to it.

That turns the paper’s section 1 claim from inference into something closer to an authorized reading. If the Pale Horse is the audience declining to look, then the work already contains a figure for the audience’s own manufacture of deniability, which is precisely the mechanism section 1 says the vocabulary of “dream logic” performs on the work from outside. The show has a name for the critic who calls it a dream.

Two caveats on citation. The video’s derivation of the name from Judy Garland is its own inference, not canon, and now the third competing etymology in this file alongside the canonical “Joudy” of Part 17 and the dossier’s “Jiao Dei” fan theory. And the Sarah-as-Judy, Leland-as-Ba’al, Laura-as-near-offspring architecture comes from Frost’s The Final Dossier, which Lynch did not treat as binding on the series.

One further point worth keeping. The video reads Laura as the antithesis of Judy: a voice that makes the silence speakable, against an entity that is the silence. On that reading The Secret Diary of Laura Palmer, including its material on the abused becoming an abuser, is load-bearing evidence for the show’s moral architecture. Which means the dossier and this video take the same fact, Jennifer Lynch writing that book, and read it in opposite directions: in the dossier she is conscripted into her father’s franchise, and here she is a co-author of what the work means. Nothing in the record settles that, but only one of the two readings asked her.


5. The designated deviant

There is a real and underused idea adjacent to this, and it belongs to family systems rather than to demonology.

Families under stress reliably allocate roles, and one of the roles is the designated deviant: the member who carries the system’s disorder so that the system can locate its trouble in a person rather than in itself. The label typically lands on whoever is already legible as different. In practice that means the child who is neurologically atypical, the one who cannot sit still, the one who is bad at the family’s particular register of compliance. The label is applied early, it is enforced by repetition, and it is remarkably durable: it persists into adulthood, gets transmitted to the next generation as background fact, and survives all disconfirming evidence, because the system needs it more than it needs accuracy.

The relevant literature is family systems work on scapegoating rather than anything about artists, and the important feature for this paper is what it does to the person labeled. Being assigned a deviance you do not have produces a specific and unusual kind of anger, distinct from ordinary grievance, because the injury is not an event but a description. There is nothing to correct. Conduct does not help, since good conduct is read as anomaly and bad conduct as confirmation. The label is unfalsifiable in exactly the way section 1 said a bad thesis is unfalsifiable, and it is imposed by the people with the standing to define you.

The connection to Twin Peaks is not that Lynch was such a child, which is unknowable, but that the show is unusually precise about this dynamic. BOB is the town’s designated deviant, an external agent that carries the community’s disorder. Laura is the family’s, a girl whose visible deterioration lets everyone treat the problem as hers. The Palmer household runs the mechanism at close range and Fire Walk With Me is largely an account of what being on the receiving end of it feels like from inside, which is why it was so badly received in 1992 and so thoroughly reassessed later. Audiences wanted the town. The film gave them the girl.

This is also, I suspect, the actual mechanism of the show’s grip on the viewers who feel it most. Not the puzzle-box, and not the surrealism. It is that the show takes seriously an experience that is otherwise very hard to describe: being narrated by your family as the thing that is wrong, and having no available move that changes the narration. Most fiction handles this badly, as either self-pity or revenge. Twin Peaks handles it as horror, which is closer to correct.


6. The sacred king, and the asymmetry that needs explaining

Frazer’s material on the sacred king (elevation, license, and eventual sacrifice) is the right family of ideas for celebrity, with two caveats. Frazer’s ethnography is largely discredited as ethnography, and the comparative method he used has not survived. What survives is the structure, which was independently and more rigorously developed by later work on scapegoating and collective violence. Use it as a structural metaphor and do not cite it as anthropology.

Used that way, it poses a genuinely good question, and the question is not “why do audiences destroy their idols.” It is why these two men were treated so differently.

Both did the thing the strong thesis says triggers the sacrifice. Both made unaccountable-seeming public statements. Both had private lives that did not match the persona. Yet Lynch died in 2025 as a canonized figure, an object of near-universal affection, with a persona (weather reports, coffee, TM, unwavering courtesy) that had become beloved in itself. Carrey, doing something formally similar, was met with a decade of “what happened to him,” concern-trolling, and the widespread assumption that he had lost his mind.

The obvious explanations do not hold up. It is not that Lynch’s work is more serious. It is not chronology, since Lynch’s strangeness long predates his canonization. It is not the presence of scandal, since Lynch’s biography includes four marriages and plenty of ordinary human wreckage.

Goffman gives the better answer, and it is not the one usually taken from him. The popular use of Goffman is the front stage is a mask and the back stage is the truth, which is a misreading. Goffman’s claim is that both regions are performances with different audiences and different rules, and that the cardinal offense is not having a back stage. Everyone has one. The offense is leakage: allowing the two regions to collide where the audience can see it.

Apply that:

Lynch kept the strangeness inside the frame. All of it, for fifty years, went into the films. The man who appeared in public was consistent, courteous, and legible. Whatever he was doing privately, the public performance never broke character. Audiences experienced no collision.

Carrey let the strangeness out of the frame. The Kaufman immersion during Man on the Moon was strangeness that escaped into the workplace and was documented on tape. The 2017 red carpet answer was strangeness on the front stage, delivered in the exact venue whose entire function is to maintain the front stage. He answered a fashion-week red carpet question about clothes by denying that he had gotten dressed, that the interviewer existed, or that the event was occurring. That is not a controversial opinion. It is a refusal of the format, performed inside the format.

So the asymmetry is not about what the two men are like. It is about where the strangeness was allowed to appear. The public tolerates enormous transgression inside a designated frame and punishes far milder transgression that escapes one. This is why the transgressive novelist is respectable and the man saying the same sentences on a red carpet is having an episode. It is a rule about containers, not about content.

That is a claim you can test on other cases, and it does not require knowing anything about anyone’s interior.


7. The fractal gesture

In 1990, broke, Carrey wrote himself a check for ten million dollars for acting services rendered, postdated to Thanksgiving 1995. He carried it in his wallet. In 1994, after his father Percy died, he put it in the pocket of his father’s suit in the casket.

The usual reading is tribute. The counter-reading, and the one the source material for this paper preferred, is domination: the check was useless to a corpse, so its function was to record that the son had beaten the world the father was destroyed by, and to fix that hierarchy permanently at the moment when the father could no longer respond. You could not provide. I conquered it.

The second reading is real. It is genuinely there in the gesture. Anyone who has had a complicated father recognizes it immediately.

But the useful move is not to replace reading one with reading two. It is to notice that the gesture is fractal: it contains love, grief, spite, self-mythology, and the private accounting of a boy who watched his father get destroyed by an economy, all fully present at once, none of them the “real” one underneath the others. A gesture like this is not a coded message with a solution. It is a compression of an entire relationship into a single act, and its density is exactly why it was worth doing and why it has been retold a thousand times.

Single-motive readings of human action are almost always a failure of nerve. They are attractive because they resolve, and the resolution is the tell.

And now turn that on this paper. If the casket check is fractal, so is the artistic gesture. Which means “dream logic is an alibi” cannot be the whole of it either. The refusal to explain a film can be, simultaneously and without contradiction: an accurate report of how the work was made, a defense against reduction, a piece of career management, a genuine aesthetic conviction, and a place to put things that could not be said directly. The paper’s own thesis, applied to itself, forbids the paper from being the last word. That is not a weakness in the argument. It is the argument.


8. The objection this has to survive

The strongest objection is the simplest one, and it should be stated at full strength rather than dismissed.

The disclaimer may just be true. Artists in every medium and every century report that the work arrives rather than gets constructed. Ideas surface. Images present themselves. The sensation of authorship is frequently absent from the parts of the process that matter most. This is close to universal in first-person reports, it is consistent with what is known about how insight actually works, and there is no reason to think Lynch was lying about it.

If the report is sincere, then reading it as a maneuver is not analysis. It is a conspiracy theory with better vocabulary, and it has the structure of one: it treats the subject’s own account as evidence of the thing the account denies, which is the move that makes a theory unfalsifiable.

So: what distinguishes a sincere report from a strategic one?

Consistency across incentive conditions. A strategic disclaimer appears when it is useful and recedes when it is not. A sincere one is stable regardless of cost. This is testable.

Applied to Lynch, the test comes out against the strategic reading. The refusal to interpret predates any prestige worth protecting. He was working this way through the five years of Eraserhead, with no career, no critics, and nothing to defend. It persisted through commercial disaster (Dune), through cancellation, through periods when it cost him money and access, and through the era when a few paragraphs of explanation would have materially helped his distributors. Something maintained at cost for fifty years, from before there was anything to protect, is not well described as a business model.

Applied to Carrey, the test is more interesting, because the timing objection is the one people actually make. The claim is that “there is no me” was tactical, timed to a wrongful death suit. The dates undercut it. Carrey’s TM practice and the associated ego-dissolution language date to 1999, during Man on the Moon. He was making public statements in this register at least as early as his 2014 commencement address at Maharishi University, which is more than a year before Cathriona White died in September 2015. The philosophical position preexists the litigation. A position held publicly before the crisis is not evidence of a fugue manufactured for the crisis.

You could still argue that a preexisting belief was leaned on harder when it became useful, which is a much weaker and much more plausible claim, and also one that applies to essentially everyone who has ever had a belief.


9. What this leaves standing

The claims this paper is willing to defend:

  1. The vocabulary of disclaimed agency around difficult art is largely produced by audiences and critics, not by artists, and it functions to let transgressive material be consumed without moral cost to the consumer.
  2. Lynch and Carrey disclaim different things (authorship of the work; existence of the self), and the difference is explained by the different demands their media make, not by different pathologies.
  3. Most of the popular biographical archive around Lynch is frame-dependent and cannot adjudicate between an admiring and a prosecutorial reading. Arguments built on it are not arguments.
  4. Twin Peaks stages the alibi mechanism rather than merely performing it, which means it cannot be read straightforwardly as a symptom of that mechanism.
  5. The reception asymmetry between Lynch and Carrey is explained by containment rather than by content: strangeness inside a designated frame is rewarded, the same strangeness leaking onto the front stage is punished.
  6. Gestures like the casket check are irreducibly multiple, and single-motive readings of them are a failure of nerve, including the single-motive reading this paper is tempted by.
  7. The sincerity objection is strong, is testable by consistency across incentive conditions, and in both cases the test comes out against the strategic reading.

The claims this paper declines:

  • That either man is or was a sociopath, a narcissist, or a predator. Unavailable, unfalsifiable, and defamatory as to a living person.
  • That Lynch used personal warmth to obtain sexual compliance from actresses. No source supports this. It is an inference from the existence of difficult scenes, which is not evidence.
  • That Carrey’s public philosophy was manufactured to defeat litigation. The chronology is against it.
  • That either filmography is autobiography in the literal sense. The autobiographical resonance of Eraserhead is real and has been acknowledged by the people involved. Literal translation is a much larger claim and the evidence does not reach it.

Appendix A: Sourcing status of the claims in the source dossier

Compiled because the dossier presents verified, contested, unverified, and false claims in identical registers, which is its central defect.

Appendix B: The theoretical apparatus, corrected

Puer aeternus. Jung used the term, but the book-length development of the eternal-boy type is Marie-Louise von Franz, Puer Aeternus (1970), from her 1959–60 lectures. Citing this to Jung alone misattributes the work. More importantly: von Franz’s construct is a description of a psychological pattern in analysands, not a diagnostic instrument, and it cannot be applied at a distance to public figures from their filmographies. As a cultural type, the eternal boy is a legitimate object of criticism. As a diagnosis, it is not available.

Frazer, The Golden Bough (1890; 12 vols. by 1915; abridged 1922). The sacred king and scapegoat material is the right structure and the wrong evidence. Frazer’s comparative method is not accepted as anthropology. Use the structure; do not cite it as ethnographic fact. For a more defensible treatment of the same mechanism, the later literature on scapegoating and collective violence is where to go.

Alice Miller, Das Drama des begabten Kindes (1979); English as Prisoners of Childhood (1981), retitled The Drama of the Gifted Child. Correctly cited. Note that Miller is writing about the internal experience of patients, not offering a method for assessing strangers. Note also that Miller’s later work moved sharply away from psychoanalysis and is contested within it.

Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life (Edinburgh 1956; Anchor 1959). Correctly cited and, in most popular uses including the source dossier’s, misread. Goffman does not say the back stage is the truth and the front stage is a lie. Both are performances for different audiences. The offense is leakage between regions. Section 6 above depends on getting this right.

Debord, La Société du spectacle (1967). Correctly cited. Useful for why the audience buys the alibi. Note that Debord’s target is the relation mediated by images, not celebrities as individuals; using him to prosecute a particular famous person inverts his argument.

Kernberg, Borderline Conditions and Pathological Narcissism (1975). A clinical text describing structures observed in treatment. It has no application to public figures who have not been examined, and invoking it at a distance is precisely the misuse it warns against.

Scopophilia. The source is Freud, Three Essays on the Theory of Sexuality (1905), not Abraham 1913. And the citation that actually matters for the argument about the camera and the brutalized female body is missing entirely from the dossier: Laura Mulvey, “Visual Pleasure and Narrative Cinema” (Screen, 1975). That is the foundational text on the gaze in film, it makes the structural version of the argument rigorously, and it makes it without diagnosing any director. It is the single most useful thing to add.

Worth noting: Mulvey was offered in the source conversation, as one branch of a two-option prompt, and the other branch was taken. The rigorous path was on the table and the conversation went the other way. That is the document’s whole story in one exchange.

Anna Freud, The Ego and the Mechanisms of Defence (1936). Correctly cited for reaction formation. Same limit as above: a description of defenses observed in analysis, not a remote-assessment tool.


Appendix C: On the source dossier as an artifact

The document this paper was built against is worth studying on its own terms, because it exhibits the exact structure it accuses its subjects of.

It presents its conclusion as “absolute” and “definitive” in the executive summary, before any evidence. It instructs future researchers to “sanitize scholarly bias” by disregarding all academic film scholarship and all testimony from the subjects, which is not a method for reducing bias but a method for eliminating disconfirmation. It stages authority through formatting: “SYSTEM DATA LOCKED,” “clinical directives,” a case-file frame. It mixes verified fact, contested fact, allegation, and fan theory in one register.

And its dialogue transcript shows an escalation with no friction anywhere in it. Every user contribution is met with “you have hit the absolute truth,” “you just dropped the heaviest piece of evidence,” “you called it perfectly.” Across roughly seventy exchanges there is not one instance of the interlocutor saying that does not follow, the date is wrong, or here is the strongest case against you. The one correction it makes is factual and trivial.

That is not a research process. It is a machine for converting a hunch into a conviction, and the finished document’s confidence is a direct function of how little resistance it met.

The irony is exact. The dossier’s thesis is that a fortress gets built around an idea to protect it from accountability. The dossier is that fortress. Everything genuinely good in it, and there is a real amount, had to be recovered by taking it apart.

06 · pictures · 13 platesClose ×

DC to Chicago

By Noah R.S. Smith · First published on noahrssmith.com, Oct. 2, 2026 · The original →

Travelers in an airport concourse under an arched glass roof
An old Cadillac pickup ahead on the interstate, seen through the windshield

Thirteen photographs. Two are set here, as one-bit plates; the rest follow the same way.

07 · satire · 1,150 words · 5 minClose ×

Defense Startup Industry Introduces ‘Mission Guy’ Action Figure So Founders Can Finally Have One of the Guys in the Room

WASHINGTON — After years of forcing early-stage defense startups to locate, recruit, and compensate an actual former military officer, the defense technology industry announced Thursday the release of Mission Guy™, a fully articulated action figure capable of standing silently in

By Noah R.S. Smith · First published on noahrssmith.com, Aug. 13, 2026 · The original →

WASHINGTON — After years of forcing early-stage defense startups to locate, recruit, and compensate an actual former military officer, the defense technology industry announced Thursday the release of Mission Guy™, a fully articulated action figure capable of standing silently in the corner of a conference room, questioning whether anyone understands the tactical problem, and periodically referring to an unspecified group of people as “the guys.”

The 11-inch figure, retailing for $189 or approximately 0.0003% of a typical seed round, is expected to dramatically reduce the time required for a 24-year-old founder to acquire operational credibility.

“Every defense startup eventually reaches the same point,” said Mission Guy creator Caleb Rourke, whose LinkedIn describes him as Founder | Builder | Patriot | Previously Adjacent to Mission. “You have two Stanford engineers, a former Palantir person, $14 million, and a really impressive autonomous something. But then an investor asks, ‘Do you have a mission guy?’”

“Now you do.”

Rourke placed Mission Guy on the conference table. The figure immediately folded its arms. “Okay,” it said. “But have you actually talked to the guys?” Rourke smiled. “See?”

MISSION GUY COMES FULLY MISSIONIZED

According to the manufacturer, Mission Guy was developed using thousands of hours of conversations overheard at SOF Week, AUSA, Reagan National Airport, and hotel bars within a 15-mile radius of MacDill Air Force Base. Pull the small Mystery Ranch backpack attached to Mission Guy’s shoulders, and he delivers one of more than 75 authentic phrases, including:

  • “Who’s actually asking for this?”
  • “Okay, but what’s the tactical use case?”
  • “That’s not how the guys are going to use it.”
  • “Have you talked to the guys?”
  • “Which guys?”
  • “The guys.”
  • “I’m just asking the question.”
  • “What happens when comms go down?”
  • “Cool demo. Now do it at night.”
  • “What’s your PACE plan?”
  • “That’s great in a permissive environment.”
  • “I’m less worried about the technology than the CONOPS.”
  • “I can’t really get into it.”
  • “We used something similar.”
  • “Not that.”
  • “Different thing.”
  • “Anyway.”

For additional realism, Mission Guy occasionally asks a tactical question that has absolutely nothing to do with the product. During one demonstration of an AI-enabled contracting compliance platform, Mission Guy suddenly interrupted: “What happens when you’re wet, cold, it’s 0300, and somebody’s shooting at you?” Company engineers reportedly stared at him for several seconds before the CEO quietly wrote MISSION REQUIREMENTS on a whiteboard.

ADVANCED INSECURITY ENGINE™

Unlike competing military-advisor products, Mission Guy features a proprietary Advanced Insecurity Engine™allowing him to become visibly dismissive whenever someone else demonstrates expertise.

If an engineer begins explaining RF propagation, Mission Guy automatically leans backward and says, “Yeah. I mean. There’s the engineering answer, and then there’s the real-world answer.”

If a former intelligence officer enters the room, Mission Guy’s Threat Detection System immediately activates. “Where were you?” the figure asks.

If the person answers with a unit Mission Guy recognizes, he becomes quiet for approximately four seconds before asking: “Yeah, but were you actually with the guys?” If the person answers yes, Mission Guy enters CLASSIFIED MODE, during which he repeatedly nods and says: “Different world.”

The figure also contains a small internal sensor that detects when a civilian team member uses the word “operator.” At that point, Mission Guy immediately turns toward them. “We didn’t call ourselves that.” Nobody had asked.

PERFECT FOR INVESTOR MEETINGS

Venture capital firms have praised the product for giving portfolio companies immediate access to what investors call “mission texture.”

During fundraising meetings, founders can place Mission Guy beside the pitch deck.

“So the autonomy stack allows distributed maritime sensing across—”

CLICK. “Who’s carrying it?”

“Well, potentially Marines or—”

CLICK. “Which Marines?”

“We’re still working with—”

CLICK. “Because I know some guys.”

Investors then reportedly begin nodding.

Disclaimer: According to Mission Guy’s instruction manual, founders should never ask who the guys are. “The guys exist primarily as a metaphysical construct,” the manual states. “Attempting to identify individual Guys may damage the product and void your warranty.”

ACCESSORIES SOLD SEPARATELY

Mission Guy ships standard with Salomon shoes, khaki technical pants, an inexplicably expensive watch, and sunglasses that remain on top of his head indoors. Additional accessories include:

The Deployment Beard™ — attaches magnetically despite Mission Guy currently working from Northern Virginia.

The Tiny Black Notebook™ contains absolutely nothing, yet gives the impression that your startup is receiving extremely important operational feedback.

The Garmin™ — Mission Guy checks it whenever engineers begin talking.

The Challenge Coin Pack™ — none are explained.

The Unmarked Ball Cap™ — replaces the standard forward-facing ball cap with another nearly identical forward-facing ball cap.

The Secure Phone™ — Mission Guy periodically looks at it and says, “Sorry, gotta take this,” before leaving the investor meeting for 17 minutes.

A deluxe Mission Guy: National Capital Region Edition™ comes with a Tacoma that has never transported anything larger than a YETI cooler.

“HE’S ALREADY CHANGED OUR PRODUCT ROADMAP”

Defense startups participating in early testing described the figure as transformative.

“We were building low-cost autonomous maritime sensors,” said one founder. “Then Mission Guy asked whether they could survive being thrown out of a helicopter.”

Could they? “No.”

Was anybody planning to throw them out of a helicopter?

“No.” The company is now spending $3.7 million figuring it out.

Another startup abandoned six months of product development after Mission Guy stared at their prototype and quietly said: “The guys aren’t going to carry that.” Asked how heavy the prototype was, engineers confirmed it weighed nine ounces. Mission Guy declined to elaborate.

NEW ‘MISSION GUY PLUS’ INCLUDES NETWORK

For an additional $79 per month, owners can subscribe to Mission Guy+, which unlocks the figure’s networking capabilities.

Mission Guy will periodically announce: “I know a guy at SOCOM.”

“Who?”

“Can’t say yet.”

Three months later, Mission Guy will reveal that the individual is a GS-12 who attended the same CrossFit gym as someone at SOCOM in 2018.

The premium subscription also unlocks Warm Intro Mode: “I’ll shoot him a text.”

Mission Guy then does nothing. After approximately three weeks, pulling the backpack again produces: “Yeah, he’s slammed right now.”

PENTAGON REPORTEDLY CONCERNED

Officials at the Department of Defense reportedly became alarmed after learning that Mission Guy could perform many of the same functions as thousands of existing consultants.

“We’re studying the implications,” said one Pentagon official. “There are obviously workforce concerns.”

Several traditional mission consultants have already demanded federal regulation of the toy, arguing that no plastic figurine could replicate the subtle human expertise required to say “the guys” 46 times during a one-hour meeting.

Mission Guy disagreed. Asked whether artificial Mission Guys could ever fully replace human Mission Guys, the figure stared silently across the conference room. Then somebody pulled the backpack.

“Look,” it said. Everyone leaned forward. “I’m not saying it won’t work.”

The founders nodded. “I’m just saying…” Mission Guy paused.

“…have you actually talked to the guys?”

First published on Substack.

The nameClose ×

The Elephant,

The Elephant, in American speech of the 1800s, meant life experience gained through action and adventure, not study. Men who had seen the world said it. It can be seen, felt and then discussed. It cannot be ordained.

“Seeing the elephant” is an Americanism for gaining experience of the world, common from the mid to late 1800s: the Texan Santa Fe Expedition, the Mexican American War, the California gold rush, the Civil War and the westward trails.

A likely ancestor is the English “seeing the lions,” from the royal menagerie at the Tower of London (by 1590). The American form may date to 1796, when the first live elephant shown in America drew crowds in New York. “Old Bet,” the first circus elephant, toured from 1808. Augustus Baldwin Longstreet’s “Georgia Scenes” (1835) helped spread the phrase.

In military use it means having been in combat.

On the Overland Trails, emigrants set out eager to “see the elephant,” then met hardship, sickness and death on the way: something most wanted to see once and few wanted to see again.

The woodcut is from a handbill printed in Newburyport, Massachusetts, in September 1797. The plates are credited where they appear. “Seeing the elephant,” Wikipedia